A TALE IN THE DESERT ECOLOGY SKILL SERIES

(d)–(f) Fractional percentage changes (% contours) in the annual mean vertically integrated (surface–300 hPa) specific humidity over CA during 2011–2100 relative to 1911–2000. (a)–(c) Changes in the annual mean precipitation (shaded) and vertically integrated (surface–300 hPa) water vapor transport flux (vector) over CA projected by the five best models’ ensemble mean under different emission scenarios during 2011–2100 with respect to 1911–2000. 10, but for the 28 models’ ensemble mean. (g)–(i) Shadings show the changes in the long–term trends of the five best models’ ensemble mean annual precipitation over CA under different emission scenarios during 2011–2100 relative to 1911–2000.Īs in Fig. The regions over 95% significant confidence level of t test in (a)–(c) and f test in (d)–(f) are shaded. 8, but for the EOF2 mode and corresponding normalized PC2.įractional percentage changes (% contours) in the (a)–(c) climatic mean and (d)–(f) ISD of the CA annual precipitation projected by the five best models’ ensemble mean under different emission scenarios during 2011–2100 with respect to 1911–2000.

A TALE IN THE DESERT ECOLOGY SKILL SERIES

In (d)–(f) the blue lines show the long-term linear regression of the normalized PC1, the r 2 in the standard least squares regression indicates the square of correlation coefficients between two time series data, and the slope reveals the trend of PC1.Īs in Fig. The (a)–(c) EOF1 mode and (d)–(f) corresponding normalized PC1 indicated with green curves of the five best models’ ensemble mean annual precipitation anomalies over CA under different emission scenarios during 2011–2100. In (g)–(i), the contours indicate long-term trends of the annual precipitation over CA (mm decade −1) and areas over 95% significant confidence level of t test are shaded.

The (a)–(c) climatic mean, (d)–(f) ISD, and (g)–(i) long-term trends of the five best models’ ensemble mean annual precipitation over CA under different emission scenarios during 2011–2100. 5, but for the EOF2 mode and corresponding normalized PC2. In (c),(d) the blue lines show the long-term linear regression of the normalized principal components, the r 2 in the standard least squares regression indicates the square of correlation coefficients between two time series data, and the slope reveals the trend of PC1.Īs in Fig. The (a),(b) first leading EOF mode and (c),(d) corresponding normalized principal component indicated with green curves of the (left) five best models’ ensemble mean and (right) CRU observed annual precipitation anomalies over CA during 1901–2005.

In (c),(f), the contours indicate long-term trends (mm decade −1) and areas over 95% significant confidence level of t test are shaded. The (a),(d) climatology, (b),(e) ISD, and (c),(f) long-term trends of the (left) five best models’ ensemble mean and (right) CRU observed annual precipitation over CA during 1901–2005. Skill of each model in simulating the climatic mean, ISD, and long-term trends of the annual precipitation over CA during 1901–2005. The model spread of the (a) climatology, (b) ISD, and (c) long-term trends of the annual precipitation over CA simulated by the 28 models in the historical experiment during 1901–2005. Topography and administrative map of central Asia.

A tale in the desert ecology skill